Humanity's fate will most probably be decided in this first quarter of 2022

The first quarter of 2022 will most probably be remembered, for a long time to come, for having decided humanity's model of collective response to "the Great Convergence of Late-Modernity". If I'm proven right then what happens in this month of January will be determinant for the future of humanity.

So how best can we summarize the situation ?

 

 

1.  The general context of the 2020's

To understand what is humanity's present situation we have first to comprehend the context in which the nations on this earth are interacting today. 

1.1. The countering of Western hubris

After the fall of the Soviet-Union the West got caught up in a bout of hubris that completely detached it from reality. It thought that its liberal world order had triumphed, that history was coming to an end, and that it got crowned master of humanity. But the nature of reality is a bitch. It always finishes by erasing what goes against its way.

So how is the nature of reality countering Western ways  ?

1.1.1. The relations between nations are conditioned by the realities of their internal situations

• societal cohesion glues the minds of the individual citizens in a collective entity that acts as one entity.    The fact of the matter is that Russia, China, and other non-Western countries are strong and cohesive societies.


• societal atomization un-glues the minds and makes it impossible for a nation to continue to act as one national entity.   The fact is that Western nations have engaged on an individualist path since many centuries and over the last 50 years they have atomized in a mass of self-centered egos who can no longer act as one nation.


• the fact of the matter is that societally atomized nations, in all circumstances, lose to societally cohesive nations

1.1.2. Reactions to a Western centric International order

Confronted to Western centric International organizations, that one-sidedly protect Western interests while their governance systems are one-sidedly being kept in the hands of Western countries, China and the bulk of the world population are creating new International institutions that better cater to their interests :  — the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)   — the Belt and roads (new Silk Roads) —  and the next institution that will dethrone the dollar of its world monetary reserve status could very well be on its way...

Such new institutions are the sole defense mechanisms against Western non-democratic practices within the present international order. See for yourself. Europe has 2 representatives in the Security Council of the United Nations while India, Africa, the Tri-Continental-Area, and Latin-America have no representatives. This gives the West a majority in the Security-Council with a veto power while it barely representsely 10% of the world population. The same kind of hegemonic domineering is at work at the world Bank where the US has 15.56 % of the voting rights. Japan has 7.31 %. China has 5.42%. Germany has 4.17 %. The United-Kingdom has 4.05 %. France has 4.05 %,  India has 3.16%. Russia has 2.87%. Canada has 2.82 %. etc...

Now the fact is that the deeper, the existing Western order is being countered by new institutions, the weaker that order becomes and the more pressing is the agreement, of all countries on this earth, about the structuring of a new system of world governance that could take on the predicament of humanity. Conscious of this China and Russia think that the time has come to confront the West to the realities of the present context. 

1.1.3. Fiat money is an instrument of exchange that is ruled by two First Principles

• Contrary to what ideologies are peddling the money in circulation must be sufficient but may not surpass the exchanging needs of society. In other words, within the realm of the economic rules of the game, the economic actors need to have access to money in order to practice their exchanges. If the money in circulation does not satisfy their needs then the value of that money starts to increase and prices start to fall bringing about an era of deflation. But when the money in circulation surpasses their needs that money starts to lose its value and prices start to increase bringing an era of inflation.
  
  The US has without a shred of a doubt engaged in monetary hubris over the last decades and more particularly over the last 3 years when the volume of dollars in circulation abruptly increased by nearly 50% while the economic activity of the country was flat at a near 0% growth rate !  In this context it is not surprising that reality would slowly be re-imposing its way. As a consequence the value of the dollar started to decrease and US citizens are confronted to increasing prices. Seen the canyon full of recent dollar creation there is no escaping its rout in value. US citizens will thus be forced to confront hyper-inflation while foreign exporters to the US will not escape the necessity to increase their prices. Some might even soon refuse to be paid in US dollars all together.
  
  These realities are inescapable and the most important question that nobody dares to ask is "what happens when China refuses dollars as payment for its exports ?". 



• To use a fiat currency it is imperative that the citizens and the International community trust the emitter of that fiat currency. A dwindling trust in the emitter comes at the cost of the value of its currency and the citizens as well as the International community start to look for alternatives.
  
  US citizens have visibly lost trust in the emitter of the dollar and those who are awake to the nature of monetary realities are converting their dollars in all kinds of other instruments among which cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are the most visible. But citizens are also converting their fiat dollars in many other items like : art works, antiques, real estate, farming land, raw materials and all kinds of "real non-perishable goods".  The International community has also taken notice and is reducing its holdings of US paper instruments while converting those in "real non-perishable goods". Another avenue that the International community has been exploring is  — the replacement of Swift as the exclusive intermediary of International transfers of US dollars  — the replacement of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. China and Russia have created their own swift and China's digital Yuan is available to import and export companies from China or working with China. If interested to understand how the system works watch these 2 interviews of Richard Turrin who is one of the most knowledgeable English speakers about the subject.
  China’s Central Bank Digital Currency by Fat Tail Investment Research
  Big Tech in China and the Digital Yuan by Oriol Caudevilla

1.1.4. The military is a tool of last resort

In a last resort the nation with the most potent military always comes out of the conflict as a winner takes all and it then automatically becomes the architect of the next cycle of International relations.

2.  The present situation

Russia feels cornered its back against a wall and it has had enough of all the bullying by Western nations.

2.1. The first round

In the words of President Putin Russia has no margin left to take a step back against the Western encirclement and it wants written guarantees about the principles of a level playing field that will give all parties confidence in their security. To that effect Russia proposed 2 treaties between itself and the West and its military-wing Nato. It also informed the West and the world that the negotiations needed to be short and to the point and that the treaties need to be signed immediately. If these conditions are not respected President Putin and others in his administration have informed that Russia would take appropriate military and technical actions to protect itself against what they describe is the naked aggression by the West against Russia's sovereignty.

2.2. The 2nd round 

Some Western representatives rejected any compromise with Russia and in the footsteps of this news a propaganda campaign was launched against the imminent attack of Ukraine by Russia. Russia repeatedly denied this accusation and gave the West a time limit to answer its treaty proposals in writing. If no answer is forthcoming Russia promises to act. The West then proposed a meeting between the US Secretary of State and the Russian Foreign Minister. This proposal seems to have been accepted by Russia which shows that its answer would be so grave that it prefers to try once more the diplomatic card. But by the end of this week, by the 22nd or 23rd of January, Russia will need an answer on the table or its credibility will be tested indeed and so it will be forced to act.

2.3. The US plays the madman

The United-States are playing the role of the madman that President Richard Nixon had initiated against the Soviet Union in the nineteen-sixties and they are betting that the Russians will not dare to confront them. But the fact is that President Putin would never engage in a dog-fight that he knew he could not win.

3.  Without a deal Russia will move to shell-shock the USA back into reality

In matter of fact only a very profound shock will awake Western big capital holders, and their servants the American and European public decision-makers, to the reality that their countries are cornered and have lost their military superiority.

What kind of action could this be ?  

Military experts are without any doubt better equipped than I'm to answer this question. But it nevertheless seems to me that, in today's web addicted world what will be determinant in Russia's action will be to gain the world's attention to the fact that the USA has been duly informed about the superiority of Russian missiles. In consequence Russian actions will be limited; sparing lives but destroying US and Nato most crucial infrastructure.

This vision gambles on the following facts :

• Russia has assurances from China that it stands ready to act


• the minds of US and European decision-makers are very deeply embroiled in ideology and can thus no longer think straight along the lines of reality


• to be shocked back into reality will unmistakably be sobering the minds of Western populations


• the minds of US old male decision-makers are still emotionally attached to the future fate of their grand-kids


• all this should unleash sufficient pressure in the minds of US decision-makers to stand back and try to find a face-saving solution that the Russians and the Chinese can agree with 
  

However one looks at today's situation the fact of the matter is that not acting now equals to further submit the world to Western diktats that become more egregious by the day. This would necessarily lead to an outcome that is far worse than whatever would be the outcome of the Russian-Chinese gamble that I have tried to describe.