2017/06/15

Imaginings of the future. Rational abstractions reached by the thinking mind…


1.  Past trends that help to understand the present:

 
Source: “Statistics on World Population, GDP and per Capita GDP, 1-2006” by Angus Maddison, University of Groeningen. Via “The Economic History of the Last 2,000 Years in 1 Little Graph”. Derek Thompson. The Atlantic. 2012-06-19.
This graph was actualized by laodan.

 
Source: Towards a new reserve currency system? Helmut Reisen, OECD Development Centre.




Stunned!

You should not be. These figures are a normal reflection of a reality that has been hidden for too long for reason of an exceptionalist ideology, or Eurocentrism, that could not accept to recognize the existence of other cultures. Check now how population stacked with GDP...



Source: “Statistics on World Population, GDP and per Capita GDP, 1-2006” by Angus Maddison, University of Groeningen. Via "The Economic History of the Last 2,000 Years in 1 Little Graph" by Derek Thompson. The Atlantic. 2012-06-19

Source: “Statistics on World Population, GDP and per Capita GDP, 1-2006” by Angus Maddison, University of Groeningen. Via "The Economic History of the Last 2,000 Years in 1 Little Graph" by Derek Thompson. The Atlantic. 2012-06-19




2.  Present trends that shape the emergence of the future: 
Population + indebtment+ economic growth.

 

2.1. About population

 
Source: “Diverging global population trends” in European Environment Agency. 18 Feb 2015


2.2. About debt

Source: “$60 Trillion of World Debt in One Visualization” by Jeff Desjardins. Visual Capitalist. 2015-08-06.


2.3. About economic growth

Source: Where is Global Growth Happening? In visual Capitalist. By Jeff Desjardins. 2017-06-02.



High debt is mostly a fact in Europe, the USA and Japan. Asian populations, the Chinese in particular, have relatively little debt while nevertheless generating the largest economic growth rates. So the mind has no difficulty grasping the fact that the outcome of the future is already a given today...




3. Future societal realities: 
The balance of economic power is going to shift and this will be pulling the attention of the citizens of the world towards Eastern worldviews...

 

3.1. OECD estimate

Source: OECD via US Global Investors Small-Caps Pack Big Punch in Emerging Markets” by Frank Holmes/ November 28, 2012



3.2. The Economist estimate:

3.3. PWC estimate: PPP and MERs (Market Exchange Rates) 

Source: “The World in 2050” PWC. February 2015 (Free 46 pages pdf).

Source: “The World in 2050” PWC. February 2015 (Free 46 pages pdf).





The estimates here above will be far off mark. No doubt about that. Societal evolution is indeed a far more complex matter than economics and demographics. Societal evolution will be driven to a great extent by -- climate change, -- destruction of living habitats, --poisoning of air, water, land and bodies. In "From Modernity to After-Modernity" I call this "the great convergence" of the multitude of side-effects of Modernity. But the fact of the matter is that economic and demographic fundamental realities are going to force nations' answers to the impact of these side-effects. So the figures in the estimates here above will eventually be far off mark but the heavy trends that they forecast will remain a matter of fact that will largely differentiate the nations' qualitative and quantitative answers. That's why I think it is so important to understand what are these heavy trends.

Following the estimates here above by 2050 the center of gravity of the economy-world will have moved from New-York to Beijing ...and by then China’s GDP shall be approximately 50% larger than the US’ GDP. In other words the US will have lost the benefit of its economies of scale that had dwarfed the European economies along the whole 20th century. This is, for example, what procured Hollywood the absolute financial advantage that left European movie makers in the dust? Economies of scales are now working to the advantage of China and this advantage is what irresistibly pulls the economy-world towards Beijing...

But what is all this going to mean in term of peoples’ daily lives? This is what I plan on illustrating in my following posts.

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