First devastating societal blow in Late-Modernity (9)

5. The shift from a Western to an Eastern model of society

5.1. after covid-19 reality = affirmation of regional blocs

The economic reset, that is taking place in this first part of the 21th century, is a historical event fraught with danger. The West is losing its hegemony over an evolving Late-Modernity. The center of gravity of the economy-world is moving to a nation outside the Western civilizational realm.  But the West, or would it be better to say the USA, is not taking this reset agreeably and is multiplying the provocations against China.

The strength of China resides within its borders

China’s analysis of the situation is that the West is acting against the natural evolution of history and considers that to counter Western aggression successfully it has to redouble its focus on the further internal development of its society in the fields of health, technology, ecological sustainability, defense, and more generally on the functioning of its system of governance.

In other words an adaptation of the Chinese strategy to a changing International context is in the making that views strength as being generated internally by the whole of Chinese society and this, it is thought, will allow its society to :

        • successfully defend its territory and the well-being of its people

        • successfully help the development of neighboring countries through the New Silk Roads

Going forward China’s focus, on the internal development of its society, is an implicit recognition of the belief by its central leadership that its system of governance will only be able to undertake whatever task victoriously after :   – the country’s financial capabilities best the rest of the world,   – its scientific knowledge base is more advanced than the rest of the world,   – its applied research and development is top of the art,   – its defense is impregnable,   – its Traditional Chinese Culture is being shared anew by all its citizens as their national worldview,   – its societal cohesion reaches its apex. It is thought that after accomplishing China's rejuvenation its vision, of “a community of nations sharing a common destiny in the production of an ecological future”, will at long last materialize.

But make no mistake. The strategy of the country has nothing to do with a Ming style internal retreat. The members of the collective leadership know full well that retreating from the world would be self defeating. Their strategy, on the contrary, is to build their country vastly stronger so that Western aggression is made no more troublesome than a mosquito bite. As an answer to US militarization of trade, technology and finance the country plans to shed its dependence on Western countries in these fields by revitalizing the potential of its own society. There is no doubt that for a while this will put a brake on the intensity of China’s investments abroad. But this will appear as no more than a momentary reduction of intensity in China’s foreign endeavors.

When the revitalization of its internal potential is achieved, within a few years time, China will be back in full force on the international scene. And this time the differential in economic might will be such that the West will have to acquiesce to China’s rightful leadership in creating a new multilateral world order or retreat from said world order. There is no doubt in my mind that this new strategy of internal revitalization is going to be seen in the future as the historical turning point when the West finally recognized that its hegemony was gone. And that’s when all nations on earth will be coming together to shape a community of shared destiny. And this historical turning point will also be celebrated for engaging the world on the path of ecological sustainability.

The George Kennan principle

In the meantime the Chinese people know full well that the US is out there plotting the downfall of their governing party which freed their nation from hunger and so successfully developed its economy that the country today is the leading world economy by PPP calculation. The Chinese strategists know that the US ambitions to apply the advise of George Kennan. The gist of that advice was summarized in his famous July 1947 ‘X-article’ and reads as follows :

“ So, if the Communist Party is incapacitated, the Soviet Russia, I quote, ‘would almost overnight turn from one of the mightiest into one of the weakest and miserable nations of the world’…”) (1)

The only adaptation in this advise is that the word 'Soviet Russia' changes to 'China'. The fact is that, since mid-March this year when the US initiated its plan B (2) propaganda campaign by issuing a 54 page usage manual, the US narrative was adapted to Kennan's advise. The target of US attacks ceased to be China as a country. The confrontation was addressed directly to the Chinese Communist Party the CCP. And the propaganda vouched to side with the victim of the CCP : the Chinese people who, according to Western polling institutions side, in their 85-90%, with the CCP. No logic there. Only a conviction hardened by propaganda :

“… the responsibilities of the destruction of your personal life, your community, your city, your state, and your nation is because of the Chinese Communist Party.

And this doesn’t even get to the fact of what happened in those labs and do they have a bio-weapons program. We’ll find that all out over time. But we know for a fact that they are guilty. This is a biological Chernobyl. it’s the sole responsibility of the Chinese Communist Party and Beijing. 

The Chinese people are totally innocent here. This is not about the Chinese people. They are the biggest victims. “ (3)

There could be no better exposition, of the implementation of George Kennan‘s advise by the US, than these statements by Steve Bannon. And since then these statements are routinely being repeated like a mantra by Republican officials.


Beijing strategists have noticed this turning point in the narrative that is being peddled by US propaganda. They have also thought deeply about the lessons of the Soviet Union’s fall. And they also know the article of Mr. X. They have observed that the turning point in US attacks on the CCP started with their plan B propaganda campaign that was summarize in the 54 page memo of advise to Republican officials about the narrative to peddle to the public and the media. Check how the following transcript from that memo now is sounding so familiar :

“ China did this:

●     The Chinese Communist Party caused this pandemic. They arrested doctors who tried to warn us. They covered up the number of deaths. They lied and pretended the disease could not be transmitted. China bought up the world’s supply of face masks and medical supplies, and then stopped exports out of the country when we needed them.   

●     China is not an ally, and they’re not just a rival they are an adversary and the Chinese Communist Party is our enemy.    

      ○     For decades, China has stolen millions of our jobs, they’ve hacked into our networks, and they’ve exported plagues and fentanyl to the United States. 

      ○    At home, China forces women to have abortions, they send religious minorities to concentration camps, and they arrest Christians.“

 

An unbearable Chinese lightness surfing on the waves of chaos

The Western character does not tolerate being faced with such a vicious propaganda. It would immediately react and add a bunch of insults. What is most remarkable is that China loses no time answering this kind of verbal aggression. It simply ignores the US. Its attitude is in the open for all to see. China focuses on finding new opportunities and its plan centers on intensifying its exchanges with the different national groupings particularly within Eurasia :

1. East-Asia

         1.1. Confucian nations

               China, Japan, South-Korea constitute the bulk of Asia’s GDP and the GDP of the Confucian area is already higher in US$ terms than the US’.

           Furthermore as the graphs here under illustrates, in terms of patent applications, East Asia is introducing patent applications at a 3.46 multiple vs the USA. (USA: 597K / East-Asia : 2066K). Such a disparity, over the years, will inevitably leave the West in the dust technologically.

Patent applications for the top 20 offices, 2018

          1.2. Asean
              

               ASEAN (combined population of more than 650 million) and China initiated the ASEAN–China Free Trade Area in 2002 and since then their trade has beaten record after record. In the present stage these countries vie to multiply new investments in the new silk roads (OBOR) in order to interconnect their territories by rail, road, sea-ports and telecommunications which will dramatically boost their future commercial and cultural exchanges.

          1.3. North East-Asia

             “Russia’s Far East Investment and Export Support Agency investment manager Vasily Libo revealed on November 1 that China’s foreign investment in the Far East advanced development zone accounted for about 59.1% of foreign investments in the region. This massive investment into the Far East is a strategic move by China as it aims to fully exploit the riches and benefits that this region of Russia can bring.  

              As the Russian Far East has a huge investment potential, especially with materials, natural resources, fisheries, and tourism, China aims to take advantage of the mostly underdeveloped region. The region is not only resource rich, but is strategically located as it borders China Mongolia and North Korea, and has a maritime border with Japan.” (4)

              China is also linking its North-East region to the free port of Vladivostok which will shorten the shipping route to the world for Inner and Outer Mongolia (5). North-Korea is furthermore awaiting better geo-political circumstances to integrate this particular developmental strategy.

              With time this ‘Far East advanced development zone’ will grow into a new economic juggernaut that will unite Japan, Korea, China and Russia in a commonly beneficial  project.

          1.4. China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
             

            A collection of infrastructure projects are presently under construction throughout Pakistan that are intended to build up Pakistan's infrastructure in order to boost its economy (modern transportation networks, network of freeways and fast railways, numerous energy projects, and special economic zones). Freeways and fast trains will link the ports of Gwadar and Karachi with northern Pakistan, and further north with western China and Central Asia. After the US exits Afghanistan the infrastructure at the port of Gwadar in the South could rapidly expand these networks toward Iran (fast train, freeways, pipelines, telecommunications,…) linking it directly with China.

2. Eurasian Economic Union

            “The Eurasian Economic Union with Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia comprises the ‘road’ part of the BRI. With a population of 183 million and GDP of some US$ 5 trillion, 70% of its trade is in Rubles and local currencies. Several Central and West Asian countries want to join this union… “ (6)

East-Asia is without any doubt the core of China’s developmental project. And the integration of its different sub-groups of countries is bound to deepen ever further till the whole area becomes a region whose interests are so intertwined that its forms a Geo-economic block with distinct interests from the rest of the world economy. By then East-Asia will be a fully fledged Regional Economic Block (REB).

Foreign Trade and New Silk Road investment projects will furthermore be continually expanded towards :   ‒ the Tri-Continental-Area (Middle-East),   ‒ Africa (7),   ‒ Europe,   ‒ and Latin-America.


The US opposition to the New Silk Roads will unmistakably end up marginalizing the Anglo-world from the Eurasian beating heart of a rejuvenated economy-world. Paradoxically it is the mean reaction of the Anglo-world toward China’s quiet developmental strategy that is keeping it at a distance from the multilateral governance system in the making. New Zealand and to a lesser extend Australia seem to have gotten the news and are slowly unwinding the tentacles that keep them captive of Washington and for good reasons :

“ China is Australia’s number one export market, our largest source of international students, our most valuable tourism market, a major source of foreign direct investment and our largest agricultural goods market”. (8)

In light of its geographical situation Canada is destined to be chained to the US forever. Britain on the other hand has already shown that when its interests are at stake it does not shun to distance itself from the Five Eyes Anglo world. It will be interesting to observe if the country will follow the drift of Continental Europe toward Moscow and Beijing.

In summary :

      1. East-Asia is expanding, in front of our eyes, into the largest among all regional economic blocs

      2. The New Silk Roads (OBOR) investments are extending East-Asia’s interconnected networks of freeways, fast trains, seaports and telecommunications to the Tri-Continental-Area, Africa and Europe. These interconnected networks are bound to multiply cross-trade and investment volumes between their different national components.

      3. The Anglo-world is slowly marginalizing itself from a revitalizing Eurasia which is affirming itself as the core of the world economy.

____________

Notes

1.       “The sources of Soviet conduct”   in Foreign Affairs. Juillet 1947, No 4; Vol. 25. New York: Council of Foreign Affairs.  Auteur :  M. X   (George Kennan), p. 566-582.


2.       See Part 1. Western propaganda distorts facts


3.       “The Chinese Communist Party is the Enemy of the United States, the Chinese People, and All of Mankind” in The Ohio Star by Julie Carr. 2020-04-21


4.       “China’s Development of the Russian Far East Can Improve EU-Moscow Relations” in Global Research by Paul Antonopoulos. 2020-11-06


5.       “Primorye-2 Transport Corridor's Cargo Traffic from China Up 65% in 2020” in Info Brics. 2020-05-28


6.       “Bypassing the Dollar: The Rise of Alternate Currency Systems” in InfoBrics by Anuradha Chenoy. 2020-05-28.


7.       The best Western source of information about China’s inroads into Africa is without any doubt Deborah Brautigam at the ‘China Africa Research Initiative’ (CARI) at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, DC.


8.       Australian Trade and Investment Commission