First devastating societal blow in Late-Modernity (8)

Part 5:  The shift from a Western to an Eastern model of society

Economic reality finances the social and cultural endeavors of a society and so the comparative influence of societies in the international sphere is given primarily by their economic power. The following table traces the evolution of economic power between the West and East-Asia over the last 20 years.

Table compiled by laodan (2020-05)
Figures are in Million US$.  Russ++ = Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Outer-Mongolia,
References :
2000 & 2010 :  World Economic Outlook Database 2000-2010
2019 : "World Economic Outlook Database, October 2019". 
EU :  European Union countries by GDP

If there were still doubts, that East-Asia has overtaken the West, this table dispels them unequivocally. And the table furthermore attests that the trajectory of East-Asia’s road to economic dominance has been carved predominantly by China. This table also shows that this trajectory is like a fact of nature that will leave the West in the dust over the coming decades. All the parameters that shape economic might, ‒ population size ‒ culture ‒ societal cohesion ‒ growth, confirm indeed that East-Asia’s march to predominance is a given. And this predominance is the determinant factor that is going to drive the reset of the geo-political scene over the years to come.

The unilateral moves undertaken by the United States over the last two decades is questioning European certainties about its own future path. Being located at the Western extremity of the Eurasian continental mass European nations are awakening to the economic attractiveness of East-Asia. The immensity of the Chinese market is simply irresistible for its producers of industrial and consumer goods and services which means that big capital holders located in the Western part of the European continent want an opening eastwards …

This particular context was further exacerbated, when the Corona-Virus broke out, as stated by the “German Foreign policy Magazine” :

“… for the second time since the 2008 crash of the financial markets, China has withstood a global crisis better than western powers and ultimately emerged even stronger. If the IMF's forecasts are correct, China's GDP will increase from US $14.2 billion in 2019 to US $15.69 billion in 2021, and close the gap more rapidly than had been previously predicted between its and the US' GDP, which will drop from US $21.2 billion (2019) to 20.89 (2021). The euro-zone, whose economic output in 2019 had reached US $14.0 billion, will fall further behind - to only US $13.56 billion in 2021. Whereas western nations will be forced to make serious cuts in their expenditures, Beijing will be able to continue to invest in its economic-technological upsurge. The crisis has provided a new boost to its rise to become the world's leading economic power. “ (1)

Gideon Rachman, the chief columnist of foreign affairs for the Financial Times, was writing no less :

“ The last global crisis the financial meltdown of 2008 triggered a loss of western self-confidence and a shift in political and economic power towards China. The coronavirus crisis of 2020 could force a much bigger shift in the same direction.” (2)

The recognition of China’s irresistible ascent is now questioning the assumption that there really is a united Western bloc. Some European nations had gone, since some years already, against the orders of the EU not to enter into Chinese investment agreements (Greece, Italy, and the Eastern bloc). Today it is the EU bloc as a whole that comes to realize that things are changing and that it has to adapt to the new realities on the ground :

“ European Union foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell told a gathering of German ambassadors on Monday that “analysts have long talked about the end of an American-led system and the arrival of an Asian century. This is now happening in front of our eyes.” He said that the coronavirus pandemic could be the catalyst to shift power from West to East and that “pressure to choose sides is growing”  for the EU, before adding that the 27-nation bloc “should follow our own interests and values and avoid being instrumentalised by one or the other. (...)

With France’s recognition of Vladivostok and Borrell now acknowledging that the power centers of the world are shifting to the East, the EU has little choice but to make a rapprochement with Russia and end its sanctions regime. In addition, it would be in the EU’s interests not to engage in anti-China actions on behalf of the U.S. (…)

Borrell seems to have little confidence that the U.S. will maintain its global leadership and is now eyeing China and the East as the EU’s new main trading partner. Effectively, as the Anglo World attempts to maintain the Atlanticist dominance, the EU is recognizing that its future lies with Eurasia. “  (3)

All this attests that the shift of the center of gravity of the economy-world toward Beijing is accelerating the re-balancing of the governance-world, out of Western hegemony, toward a new multilateral architecture designed along the following 5 lines :

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Notes:

1.   “The Powers and the Pandemic” in German Foreign Policy. 2020-04-16. The` Euro-zone's GDP was 14 billion in 2019. To get the total GDP of the EU must added to the Euro-zone GDP the GDP of Britain and the Nordic countries who do not participate in the Euro currency zone.

2.  “How Beijing reframed the coronavirus response narrative” in FT by Gideon Rachman. 2020-03-16.

3.  “EU admitted “American-led system” nears its end” in Info Brics by Paul Antonopoulos. 2020-05-26