The great game for the soul of humanity in tomorrow's world

The context of Russia's two Treaty proposals with the West just got unveiled without ambiguity by Sergey Karaganov in an article, titled "It’s not really about Ukraine", that got published yesterday by RT :

"The security system in Europe, built largely by the West after the 1990s without a peace treaty having been signed after the end of the previous Cold War, is dangerously unsustainable.
... There are a few ways to solve the narrow Ukrainian problem ... But the task is wider: to build a viable system on the ruins of the present. And without resorting to arms, of course. Probably in the wider Greater Eurasian framework. "

What is at stake is thus what kind of a world we are going to be living in tomorrow !

A new Multilateral World Order rising from the Greater Eurasian framework.

The potential of a Greater Eurasian Framework to build a new and viable system of world governance, that Karaganov suggests here, opened up for one single reason. The recovery by China of its historical natural economic potential procured that country with the necessary resources to open an investment trail going through the rest of the world, and more particularly through its Western border, where the development of the countries of Eurasia finally frees the potential to, not only interconnect, but to integrate the economies of the Tri-Continental-Area (Africa, Europe, and Asia).

What I call the Tri-Continental-Area is the Island-world in the words of McInder's early-twentieth century Geopolitical theory.

As an outlying island the USA is vehemently opposed to the integration of the economies of the Tri-Continental-Area because it would mean the ending, once and for all, of the exuberant privileges that it reaped from the hegemony it inherited coming out of the 2nd World War. But China's newly recovered economic might offers just such a new perspective to the world. And what's more, finally seeing the day coming when its throat shall be liberated from the foot of the imperial hegemon that suffocates it, the aspiring 'developing world', that represents the large majority of the world population, is rushing to jump on China's band-wagon.

The fact is that accepting to lose the privileges it has accrued, from the exercise of its imperial policies over the last 70 years, is not in the cards of the USA. That's why that country threatens China's further economic development hoping to procure for itself a new lease on the monopoly extraction of the world's resources. But this is something that nor China, nor Russia nor the large majority of the aspiring developing world, is ready to accept any longer. They know all too well that this would plunge them again into a long period of suffering under the brutal exactions of the hegemon. That's why they are betting on China's further economic growth to pull the world in the direction of a new Multilateral World Order.

The foundations of this Multilateral World Order

The world has reached a cross-point and this is why China and Russia published their joint-statement of February the 4th that for the first time clearly spells out what the alternative they propose is all about. This statement has to be viewed as a first draft political manifesto about the 3 foundational pillars of the future Multilateral World Order :

1. Democracy :
   Democracy means "people's power". All nations on earth want  the "people's power" at the center of the political decision-making process.  This means that the will of the people is the sole criterion that satisfies the principle of democracy. But the forms taken by democracy, in its application by all nations, must naturally be adapted to their cultural and historical context. There is thus no perfect single size model of the democratic principle. And no nation can thus invoke the right to impose its own conception on others. The sole judge of the democratic nature of the governance of a country must at all time be its own people and outside interference, against the will of the people, should be rejected out of hand !


2. National sovereignty, equality and security :
   The sovereignty, equality and security of all nations is the necessary foundation of a new multilateral world order that seeks to exclude the hegemony, and domination through force by the strongest, that has plagued humanity for so long.
   The recognition by China that the sovereignty, equality and security of all nations on earth, is one of the pillars in the foundation of the new Multilateral World Order, is earth-shattering indeed. It is the first time, in the history of humanity, that the nation, soon to be the strongest on earth, calls for the respect of the sovereignty, equality and security of all other nations. And this, again for the first time, opens the real perspective of a more just world in which all nations share a common future.


3. The Institutions of the future Multilateral World Order :
   In the current context, the UN is the sole institution recognized by all nations and in this sense the decisions of the UN today form the only legal platform binding them. Any temptation by a minority of nations that would like to impose their own vision of a “rules-based world order” is therefore null and void. And all trials to impose a “rules-based world order” by force shall thus be resisted by the force of the large majority of the people on this earth.
   But after the Geopolitical situation stabilizes the Nations of this earth shall have to sit down and talk.
   The Institutions of the UN were created by the US at a time when that country represented 50% of the world's economic output and when it held 80% of the world's gold reserves.  Since then much water has run on the roofs of these institutions and the time has come for the nations of this earth, or to create a new set of institutions that are better adapted to the present age, or to deeply reform the present institutions. But the negotiation, of the future institutions that will manage a new Multilateral world order, are only conceivable in a world where the democracy, in the decisions between nations, is restored and they no longer fear the loss of their sovereignty, equality and security at the hands of a brutal hegemon.

Russia needs a friendly Western flank in the competition of the future

As already mentioned the potential offered by a Greater Eurasian Framework to build a new and viable system of world governance, as Karaganov suggests, is coming under attack on its Eastern flank and the hegemon plans to concentrate all its forces there to cut China's further economic development. That's why Sergey Karaganov writes that:

"Russia needs a safe and friendly Western flank in the competition of the future. Europe without Russia or even against it has been rapidly losing its international clout. That was predicted by many people in the 1990s, when Russia offered to integrate with, not in, the continent’s systems. We are too big and proud to be absorbed. Our pitch was rejected then, but there is always a chance it won’t be this time."

China's economy is the foundation on which rests the potential offered by a Greater Eurasian Framework.

That foundation has thus to be protected at all costs. Losing that foundation would mean the end of the Greater Eurasian dream and by extension utter misery for Russia. Russia needs therefore to be focusing on the competition of the future that rises on its Eastern flank which implies the elimination of frictions on its Western flank. For decades Europe has been suffering in silence Washington's egregious long arm jurisdiction which has cost it hundreds of billions of dollars. European leaders had also to silently accept being publicly shamed by leaks of documents showing that the CIA was spying on them as well as on the the top echelons of their national corporations.

Comes a time when enough is enough. Europeans have shown a rare patience for a long time but perhaps the time has come now when enough is indeed enough. President Macron told reporters that during their meeting in Moscow President Putin and him saw eye to eye on some of the matters they talked about while in the meantime Chancelor Scholz in Washington had to bite on his teethes listening to President Biden. Under the title "Biden says Nord Stream 2 won’t go forward if Russia invades Ukraine, but German Chancellor demurs" CNBC writes :

"President Joe Biden said Monday that progress on the German Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would be halted if Russia launches a military invasion of Ukraine. 

But visiting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz refused to commit to pulling the plug on Nord Stream 2. 

The disconnect between Biden and Scholz offered a rare public glimpse at just one of the issues that has made it difficult so far for NATO allies to agree on the severity of sanctions that would be imposed on Moscow if it invades Ukraine."

Inflicting pain where it hurts most

China and Russia clearly understand that the U.S. does not want to raise interest rates because this most probably would result in the collapse of its financial system. But they also understand that its hyper-inflation is forcing it to do it. As Alastair Crooke suggests China and Russia also know that they can force US inflation to rise at even higher rates inflicting thus so much more economic pain :

"They can see that food prices are soaring, with potash from Belarus blocked, and Russia banning the export of ammonium nitrate.
... The consequences for fertiliser prices – and therefore European food prices – is obvious, as is the consequence of European spot energy prices, were Russian gas to be barred from Europe. That is how economic pain works. The West slowly is discovering that it has no pressure point versus Russia (its economy being relatively sanctions-proof), and its military is no match for that of Russia’s."

As the last two years have also so powerfully demonstrated China has a firm grip on the East-Asian manufacturing chains which gives it the controlling hand in the supply and the shipment of components and finished products to the USA and to Europe and this is not going to change in the foreseeable future. But in the meantime the shipping disruptions are thinning the range of products on Wallmart and other's shelves thus destabilizing the supply of daily use commodities which directly impacts the mood of the citizens whose anger against their elites is growing by the day.

Those who seriously try to sift from the daily news, the actions and moves that are determinant in shaping our near future, are well aware by now that we have entered the great game for the soul of humanity in tomorrow's world...